An introduction to a simplified model for undergraduate students (in Italian) is available here.
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Evolution of the derivative of the number of infected people with time.  Exponential growth of infected people as a function of time. Rise time estimated in different time windows. 
Simulation of the outbreak: 500 individuals in a square 80x80. When they meet there is a 75% probability of infecting others if infected. Ecah infected individual has a probability of 4.5% to die, but it recovers after 150 steps, on average. Once recovered it cannot be infected. With 500 individuals the final population after 1000 iterations is of 360, all infected. 
Simulation of the outbreak: 50 individuals in a square 80x80. When they meet there is a 75% probability of infecting others if infected. Ecah infected individual has a probability of 4.5% to die, but it recovers after 150 steps, on average. Once recovered it cannot be infected. With 50 individuals the final population after 1000 iterations is still of 50, nobody died. 
Comparison between different regions. t=0 is when each region reached N>100 infected.

Comparison between different regions in log scale and relative to the maximum number of infected people reached in each of them. t=0 is when each region reached N>100 infected. The higher the slope, the faster the infection spread.

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Thanks to Francesco Amicucci, Egidio Longo, Marcella Diemoz for useful hints and discussions.
Quest'opera è distribuita con Licenza Creative Commons Attribuzione 4.0 Internazionale.